Handicapping the field – Nakamura (2nd appearance, 1st in 40 years)

(photo courtesy of Daily News)

Road to Haru Koushien

Prefecturals

• def Aki 2-0
• def Kochi 6-5
• def Kochi Higashi 4-1
• def Tosa 5-1
• def Meitoku Gijyuku 2-0

Super-Regionals

• lost Eimei 5-7 (13 inn)

At first the picture suggests the team only had 10 men, but that certainly couldn’t have been true because they would have made mention of it. The team though does have just 16 members. (FYI, the team seen in the picture are the 2nd years. The first years were on a trip and were not present for the presentation which is unfortunate because the moment can only happen once).

The resume for Nakamura is the best of the 3, defeating 2 teams that have attended Koushien before, and taking a former participant to 13 innings.

Kitahara Noa (北原 野空) is their ace and the one responsible for shutting out Meitoku Gijyuku giving up just 7 hits, striking out 4 and walking 2. The game against Eimei he could not close it out in the late innings, giving up 3 runs in the final 2 innings eventually capitulating 4 innings later. His combined line in his last 2 games was 4 ER on 23 hits with 10 Ks and 6 BBs.

Offensively, the team has some good and bad news. The good news is that their offense seems to at least carry some weight. No one person really seems to carry the offense, but there may not be a vacuous hole at the bottom of the lineup that other teams carry. In addition they do not strike out at ridiculous rates which would suggest that they’re over their skis. The bad news is that despite the fact that no obvious holes exist, the team versus Meitoku Gijyuku and Eimei were 16-74 or a paltry 0.216.

Still, of all three 21st century teams, it seems that Nakamura may have the best chance of escaping the 1st round. Nakamura’ inclusion into the field of 32 also signals that the JHBF’s method of selecting teams is still a bit of a black box. Tohoku gets more than their fair share of 21st century bids while Kanto and Tokyo do not. Non-baseball criteria only add to a team’s resume, but don’t become the main reason for selection (unless of course you are from Tohoku). Resume is important, but sometimes a team in form isn’t selected (Engaru), perhaps due to times before where they succeeded beyond expectations (Rifu).

Really then what is the 21st century team bids for?

Handicapping the field – Tajimi (1st appearance)

(photo courtesy of Livedoor news)

Road to Haru Koushien

Prefecturals

• def Kani 4-3
• def Nakatsu Shougyou 4-1
• def Gujyou 4-2
• def Mashita Seifuu 6x-5
• def Reitaku Mizunami 10-1

Super-Regionals

• lost Shigakukan 1-2

The resume hinges on one game really. In the prefecturals there was no Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou, no Shiritsu Gifu Shougyou, no Oogaki Nichidai. That didn’t stop them from having close games time and time again before coming through in the prefectural final. In fact, the semifinal against Mashita Seifuu, they scored 5 in the 9th for a gyakten sayonara victory. They scored all 6 runs on just 4 hits.

Really it is the narrow loss to Shigakukan that makes their resume have any sort of validity. Shigakukan themselves had a resume that was so-so, defeating an Aikoudai Meiden that isn’t what it used to be, and then in the super-regionals Chuukyoudai Chuukyou who they missed in the prefecturals.

Kawachi Keita (河地 京太) is their ace, and the one responsible for holding them to just 2 runs on 4 hits, striking out 1 and walking none. The lack of K’s is always a concern, but still 4 hits is pretty good. I can’t find any videos, but this Asahi article talks about him having a ~130 kph fastball with a 90’s slow curve. It probably explains the low K numbers if anything.

The issue for them, much like Kozukata is their offense. 4 of their games they scored 4 or less runs, and if you consider that they had just 1 run against Mashita Seifuu until the bottom of the 9th, it’s clear that the team struggles to get runners home. What offense they do have is mostly situated at the top of the lineup. Each of the top 4 batters almost collects a hit per game. Not great, but better than nothing.

Again, there’s little to go on, but I think that Tajimi will stand more of a chance than Kozukata. What will also help is the possible crowd that will travel down for their game. Maybe it gets close to the size of Shin-Minato’s ouen-dan. But their overall prospects are to maybe win one game, but only if things fall their way.

Handicapping the field – Kozukata (1st appearance)

(photo courtesy of Biglobe news)

Road to Haru Koushien

Morioka Regionals

• lost Morioka Dai-ichi 0-6
• def Kounan Gijyuku 9-5
• def Tairadate 13-3 (6 inn)

Prefectruals

• def Touno 11-0 (6 inn)
• def Fukuoka 2x-1 (11 inn)
• def Morioka Shiritsu 7-1
• def Hanamaki Nougyou 6-4 (10 inn)
• lost Moriokadai Fuzoku 0-9

Super-Regionals

• lost Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei 0-2

10 men. Just 10 men was able to get to the Iwate finals. 10 men to get to the super-regionals.

10 men held Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei to just 2 runs.

Yes their road was easy. Yes they got blown out by Moriokadai Fuzoku. But this is the story that I had in my head when I believed in the romanticism of this game.

Since the team is just 10 players, there really isn’t much to delve into. Their only pitcher in all likelihood is Kohiruimaki Keita (小比類巻 圭汰). Doing yeoman’s work, he pitched in 2 enchousen games, the second of which gave him absolutely no rest to face Moriokadai Fuzoku. So he could easily be forgiven for his collapse in that game. Against Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei he fared much better, giving up 2 runs on 9 hits, striking out 5 and walking 2.

Where the team will really struggle is on offense. In the two games against known teams, they went a combined 6-59 with 22 strikeouts and no walks. 2 of those hits came from RF Iwama Tatsuki (岩間 龍輝).

With 21st century teams it’s much harder to get information on them. They’re generally not followed, most do okay during the aki taikai but not well enough to garner coverage that can be parsed for information. The best video I could find was just an introduction to the team, their current situation with 10 men, and what they were doing to perhaps shore up things for the road ahead.

I won’t beat around the bush here. The team will be outmatched in almost any pairing they have. And if they get a really bad draw, it’s possible it could get really ugly. I hope that doesn’t happen. I hope they draw a lesser opponent and make a somewhat close game out of it. I don’t want to see their work done in by a blowout – even if they know the odds are against them.

Handicapping the field – Takada Shougyou (3rd appearance, 1st in 23 years)

(photo courtesy of Mainichi Shinbun)

Road to Haru Koushien

Prefecturals

• def Ouji Kougyou 12-1 (7 inn)
• def Ikoma 7x-0 (8 inn)
• def Nara Kita 11-8
• def Kashihara 7-0 (7 inn)
• def Takatori Kokusai 2-1
• lost Chiben Gakuen 4-5

Super Regionals

• def Wakayama Higashi 9x-8 (13 inn)
• lost Riseisha 0-7x (8 inn)

The voting methods of the JHBF baffle me at times. While I mentioned in my announcement post that I understood that it would be hard to invite 3 Osaka teams directly at least Uenomiya Taishi could have been the first team out. But instead it was Takada Shougyou’s opponent Wakayama Higashi that sat ahead of them. I guess since in the end neither was going to make it it doesn’t matter, but in principle for me it does. Anyways, we have what we have and Nara gets a 2nd team in the form of Takada Shougyou, which by process of elimination was the only real team left for them to select.

The resume is a bit average. If we took the general state of affairs in Nara, losing narrowly to Chiben Gakuen is not a bad thing. But Chiben Gakuen is in a bit of a rebuilding phase right now, so they’re not as strong as in prior years. The enchousen game against Wakayama Higashi isn’t great either considering the loss of leadership at Chiben Gakuen has created a vacuum of sorts in the prefecture. And then there is the blowout loss to Riseisha where they just managed 2 hits.

Offensively, the team isn’t much better. In their last 4 games, the team as a whole batted 30-127 with their overall slash line being 0.236/0.289/0.315. Their best hitter by far is 2B Ueda Yuuki (上田 有輝) who was 5-16 with 3 RBIs followed up perhaps by CF Nakao Tsubasa (中尾 翼). But with holes all over the rest of the lineup, it’s hard to imagine them having success at Koushien.

What is saving Takada Shougyou right now is their ace, Furukawa Hibiki (古川 響輝). He’s not a fireballer by any stretch of the imagination, his velocity is average at best in the mid 130s. However, he reportedly features 6 pitches – slider, curve, changeup, forkball, cut fastball and shuuto. The quality of each of those pitches may be another story though. Since we have 2 relatively high quality opponents to get data from, let’s take a look at his lines:

• vs Chiben Gakuen – 8 IP, 5 R, (4 ER), 10 H, 3 K, 2 BB
• vs Riseisha – 7 IP, 7 R, (6 ER), 6 H, 7 K, 3 BB

Which works out to a 6.00 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP, 6.00 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9. Could be worse against those teams, so on the overall it’s probably ok.

His only problem will be the fact that his offense is so anemic that he’s going to have to find a way to carry the team. And given that his performance against Wakayama Higashi he gave up 8 runs in 9 innings before turning the ball over to Sugita Kouichi (杉田 晃一) I’m not sure it’s going to be enough.

The JHBF was pretty much left in a bind as to who to nominate as the Meiji Jingu bid. But the minute they decided that 3 Osaka teams weren’t possible, there was no choice left. I just have a hard time imagining them being able to go far in the tournament. They may be able to pull off a win or two if given a favorable schedule, but that’s only if they’re lucky.