Does appearing more often result in better chances to win the title?

So one may wonder, do tiers matter in terms of winning Koushien? I’ve taken the tier list and started moving teams off the lists as they are eliminated. Upcoming teams at risk in red.

Champion

• Tier 1 – Saitama – Hanasaki Tokuharu (5th apperance, 3rd consecutive)

Runner-up

• Tier 1 – Hiroshima – Kouryou (22nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)

Semi-finalists

• Tier 1
  • Nara – Tenri (28th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
• Tier 3
  • Nishi Tokyo – Toukaidai Sugao (3rd appearance, 1st in 17 years)

Quarterfinal Elimination

• Tier 1
  • Iwate – Moriokadai Fuzoku (10th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Miyagi – Sendai Ikuei (26th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
• Tier 2
  • Oita – Meihou (6th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
• Tier 3
  • Kagawa – Sanbonmatsu (3rd appearance, 1st in 24 years)

3rd Round Elimination

• Tier 1
  • Fukushima – Seikou Gakuin (14th appearance, 11th consecutive)
  • Osaka – Osaka Touin (9th appearance, 1st in 3 years)
• Tier 2
  • Gunma – Maebashi Ikuei (3rd appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Higashi Tokyo – Nishogakushadai Fuzoku (2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Hyogo – Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku (2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Ehime – Saibi (5th appearance, 1st in 4 years)
  • Kagoshima – Kamimura Gakuen (4th appearance, 1st in 5 years)
• Tier 3
  • Aomori – Aomori Yamada (11th appearance, 1st in 8 years)

1st/2nd Round Elimination (both rounds grouped in since some start in 2nd Round)

• Tier 1
  • Minami Hokkaido – Hokkai (38th appearance, 3rd consecutive)
  • Tochigi – Sakushin Gakuin (13th appearance, 7th consecutive)
  • Chiba – Kisaradzu Sougou (6th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Kanagawa – Yokohama (17th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Yamanashi – Yamanashi Gakuin (7th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Niigata – Nihon Bunri (9th appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Wakayama – Chiben Wakayama (23rd, 1st in 2 years)
  • Kochi – Meitoku Gijyuku (19th appearance, 8th consecutive)
• Tier 2
  • Higashi Tokyo – Nishogakushadai Fuzoku (2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Aichi – Chuukyoudai Chuukyou (28th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
  • Toyama – Takaoka Shougyou (18th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
  • Gifu – Oogaki Nichidai (4th appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Hyogo – Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku (2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Shimane – Kaisei (10th appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Kumamoto – Shuugakukan (3rd appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Kagoshima – Kamimura Gakuen (4th appearance, 1st in 5 years)
  • Okinawa – Kounan (11th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
• Tier 3
  • Kita Hokkaido – Takikawa Nishi (3rd appearance, 1st in 19 years)
  • Aomori – Aomori Yamada (11th appearance, 1st in 8 years)
  • Akita – Meiou (9th appearance, 1st in 8 years)
  • Yamagata – Nichidai Yamagata (17th appearance, 1st in 4 years)
  • Ibaraki – Tsuchira Nichidai (3rd appearance, 1st in 31 years)
  • Nagano – Matsushou Gakuen (36th appearance, 1st in 9 years)
  • Ishikawa – Nihon Koukuu Ishikawa (2nd appearance, 1st in 8 years)
  • Fukui – Sakai (1st appearance), merger in 2016 of…
    • Harue Kougyou (no appearances)
    • Sakai Nougyou (no appearances)
  • Shizuoka – Fujieda Meisei (1st appearance)
  • Mie – Tsuda Gakuen (1st appearance)
  • Shiga – Hikone Higashi (2nd appearance, 1st in 4 years)
  • Kyoto – Kyoto Seishou (3rd appearance, 1st in 19 years)
  • Tottori – Yonago Shouin (3rd appearance, 1st in 17 years)
  • Okayama – Okayama Sanyou (1st appearance)
  • Yamaguchi – Shimonoseki Kokusai (1st appearance)
  • Tokushima – Naruto Uzushio (1st appearance), merger in 2012 of…
    • Naruto Dai-ichi (1 appearance, 2004)
    • Naruto Kougyou (6 appearance, last in 2008)
  • Fukuoka – Touchiku (6th appearance, 1st in 21 years)
  • Saga – Waseda Saga (1st appearance)
  • Nagasaki – Hasami (3rd appearance, 1st in 16 years)
  • Miyazaki – Seishin (St.) Ursula (2nd appearance, 1st in 12 years)

What we’ve learned – After all teams have taken the field

(photo courtesy of Sponichi)

Now that we’ve gotten a chance to look at the entire field, what last things can we take away?

Dominating a prefecture isn’t necessarily a good thing

Think about this. There are now 10 graduating classes in Fukushima where if you’re not Seikou Gakuin, your school has never been to Natsu Koushien. That is astonishing.

In the meantime, Seikou Gakuin has generally managed to put together a better than 0.500 record while at Koushien, but haven’t had major success.

Over the last couple of years though, it looked like their vice grip on the prefecture was loosening as teams almost beat them in the finals, though they never did.

This time around felt different. They seemed to be heading back to the dominating team they once were with their run this year. Even still, I pegged them as favorites against Kaisei (Nagasaki) as their resume left something to be desired.

While I didn’t catch the entire game, the parts I did watch felt like a competitive game, but against two teams who really were just not that good. Worse yet, Seikou was on the wrong side of it.

Again, the question should be raised with regards to Fukushima, does the fact that no one else has won the prefecture drained talent elsewhere looking for a better chances?

Nakamori could be worth a look in the draft, if he only looked more confident

Facing one of the higher tiered schools in Hanasaki Tokuharu, Akashi Shougyou’s Nakamori had a hard task ahead of him.

But he was actually keeping his team in the game and looked rather good doing so.

And yet, there were points in the game where Hanasaki Tokuharu were threatening where the camera would zoom in on his face and it looked like he had no confidence at all. I was sure that he’d crumble under the pressure, but instead he held firm as his team narrowly won. I’d like to see another turn with him on the mound to confirm my thoughts.

There are no clear front-runners for the Natsu Koushien title, just guesses

Working backwards from Day 7, these schools might have a better chance of winning it all:

• Akashi Shougyou (Hyogo) – Nakamori could be a true ace, but he also feels like a pitcher who could just fall mentally apart as well.
• Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi) – They had to play a really good Chikuyou Gakuen team this year and while they did not dominate, they did not show any big flaws save for their ace’s durability. Which compared to other teams is not all that bad.
• Kanto Dai-ichi (Higashi Tokyo) – It’s possible the imperfect dual aces manage their way through the field while the offense provides enough offense to make up for any deficiencies.
• Narashino (Chiba) – Narashino’s problem is that they will walk a tightrope with their relief corps in order to manage ace Iidzuka and could continue to play from behind, which is always playing with fire.
• Chiben Wakayama (Wakayama) – They’re tentatively on this list because for the first time I think they have a worthwhile team, especially on the pitching front. Their next game vs Meitoku Gijyuku will speak volumes.
• Seiryou (Ishikawa) – Okugawa is going to be a first rounder. But can his team score enough runs for him?
• Tsuda Gakuen (Mie) – The least-known team has an ace who could send them deep into the tournament, but like Seiryou, can they provide him with the necessary offense?

What we’ve learned – Opening rounds (Part 2)

(photo courtesy of Sanspo)

3 more days in the books as we now turn to the shorter brackets to start the 2nd round. 13 teams still left to take the field, but what else have we learned?

Chiben Wakayama has stemmed the tide?

It’s still hard to see if that’s truly the case given that Yonago Higashi wasn’t really a big test for them. And yes, they only pulled away at the end. But the pitching was all right and the offense did eventually flip the switch. Meitoku Gijyuku will be a tougher test, followed by Seiryou (assuming they make it to the Bracket finals).

Oofunato may have lasted only one game anyways

From Hanamaki Higashi’s performance against Naruto, once can extrapolate that even if Sasaki wasn’t injured and helped Oofunato make it, that the offense probably would have just fallen flat against Naruto (assuming a direct substitution). The fact that Nakamori and Nishitate looked that bad against Naruto, but did fairly well against Oofunato tells you all you need to know.

Sendai Ikuei will probably lose their next game

What? But they beat Iiyama 20-1! Surely they’ll take that momentum into the next game.

Not with my experience watching games.

Any time a team blows out the opposition, and scores high teens or more, they almost always tend to fall flat the very next game.

Call it overconfidence, call it running yourselves ragged in the summer heat when you could have given your starters a rest. Either way, these teams struggle.

Plus, they’re facing Naruto who will be a tough challenge for their still underwhelming pitching staff.

Narashino will continue to walk the tightrope

They have decided to not change their strategy from the spring. A relief starter will take the mound for as long as they can, then pass the torch to ace Iidzuka.

Generally trailing, of course.

I said it then, and I’ll say it again. That is a thin tightrope you’re balancing on asking your team to come back again and again. They may have been able to do it, but they couldn’t do it against Touhou in the finals.

Can you really depend on them to do it this time around??

Speaking of which…

Iidzuka should go in the first 2 rounds of the draft

Iidzuka came into the game for Narashino in a tight pinch. While he allowed an inherited runner to score, he shut down the Okinawa Shougaku offense, striking out the side in the 8th and 9th innings allowing the offense to mount a comeback. It got a little hairy in the 10th, but he closed it out.

Narashino has always had trouble with pitching, almost trying to build that poor man’s pitching staff like I mentioned in Jason Coskrey’s article. It never quite worked out.

Perhaps, until now. Iidzuka doesn’t have quite the fireballer’s stuff, but he has good control and a good idea of pitching to the situation. I’m not sure he’ll become someone like Oosera Daichi, but I think he’ll come close.

Kanto Dai-ichi is about as imperfect as I thought they were

Against a Nihon Bunri team that has struggled to revive the run of 2009, ace Tsuchiya struck out an amazing number of batters… but gave up 5 runs as well.

His partner in crime, Tani did a much better job in keeping the Nihon Bunri bats silent, but he walked more batters than he struck out.

Tani probably is the better prospect because at least he’s not hittable. If he can limit the walks, he can be the better pitcher out of the two.

It’s still possible they make a good run. If managed properly they can run a similar tightrope to Narashino, who they likely will have to play to escape the bracket…

There’s STILL no obvious frontrunner

I’ve still got no clue as to who is the leader of the pack to win this. Generally even before Koushien starts you can point to one or two teams.

But each team seems to have a fatal flaw that just prevents me from picking them outright. Even my homer team in Narashino is not immune to this. (How many times can you ask the offense and Iidzuka to bail you out of your relief corps’ performances??!!)

It’s still possible with the teams left that a frontrunner will emerge. But it could be that from here on out, it’s who has the better matchup that could dictate who wins it all this year.

What have we learned so far?

(photo courtesy of 高校野球ドットコム)

It’s only been the first 2 days and 7 of the 14 teams have taken the field, but there’s still things to parse.

Seiryou may have the best ace, but they may not go far

Okugawa is by far the best pitcher to have taken the mound. Against what should have been an overmatched Asahikawadai side, he threw a complete game 3-hitter striking out 9 and walking 1.

And yet his team won 1-0.

Asahikawadai did not play anyone of note during the prefectural tournament outside of Clark Kokusai who didn’t even have a baseball team until 2014!!

And all Seiryou’s offense could support their ace with was just one run. Imagine if they have to play an actual good team! Which brings me to my second point

There doesn’t appear to be a bonafide favorite to win the tournament

Sure, when Osaka Touin was in the field, you could flip a coin and basically determine if they could win the tournament.

Well, they’re not in the tournament, and there is no team that looks like they have the whole package.

As mentioned earlier Seiryou has excellent pitching, but an offense that is Touyoudai Himeji offensive. It’s quite possible he strikes out double digits and loses 1-0.

Speaking of Osaka, there’s Riseisha, but if not for their early barrage could have easily lost to Kasumigaura. That performance post-break looked more like a team from the rural areas never mind a powerhouse. There’s almost zero chance a team that plays like that will survive long.

Tsuda Gakuen’s Mae Yuito shows flashes of being a true ace, but his inconsistencies plus the same lack of offense means they’re more at-risk than Seiryou.

There a lot of meh teams out there

When you are an average school, you have the average things:

Got a runner on first and less than two outs. Bunt the runner along.

Ahead in the count 0-2? Throw a waste pitch not even close to the plate. (Sure, good teams do that too).

Most of the average pitchers throw a fastball in the 130s.

And there are quite a few bad swings and misses at the dish.

Now, of course these games matter to these teams and they’re certainly doing their best. But, when you see them out in the field or up at the plate they can start looking the same.

We’ll see how teams like Chiben Wakayama, Narashino and Kanto Dai-ichi get on but at this point there aren’t really any surprises with respect to the teams that have advanced so far.

101st Natsu Koushien – Bracket Analysis

(Photo courtesy of Asahi)

The draw has occurred, where do all the teams stand?

Note: The numbers before each game represent the day of the tournament and the game. For example, 1-1 means Day 1 of the tournament (August 6th JST), 1st game of the day.

Bracket A

• 1-2 – Saga Kita (Saga) v Kamimura Gakuen (Kagoshima)
• 1-3 – Takaoka Shougyou (Toyama) v Iwami Chisuikan (Shimane)
• 2-1 – Riseisha (Osaka) v Kasumigaura (Ibaraki)
• 2-2 – Shizuoka (Shizuoka) v Tsuda Gakuen (Mie)

For a team like Riseisha, on the surface you could say they got a break with the draw. But Riseisha never had to play Osaka Touin, and the only team of note they beat is Konkou Osaka. Maybe.

Tsuda Gakuen’s Mae Yuito more than a serviceable pitcher, but the offense is a question.

Then there’s Saga Kita, who seems to have gone back to their 2-pitcher system that worked so well in 2007…

Bracket B

• 2-3 – Seiryou (Ishikawa) v Asahikawadai (Kita Hokkaido)
• 2-4 – Akita Chuo (Akita) v Ritsumeikan Uji (Kyoto)
• 3-1 – Yonago Higashi (Tottori) v Chiben Wakayama (Wakayama)
• 3-2 – Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi) v Touin (Oita)

Seiryou’s Okugawa gets one more chance to make his mark at Koushien, and the team gets what looks like a favorable opening two games.

The problem may be escaping the bracket, as while I hate to say it, Chiben Wakayama may be back. It’s still a bit early to tell, but their performance in the spring, if backed up here could be bad news for the rest of the nation, never mind Wakayama.

Bracket C

• 3-3 – Maebashi Ikuei (Gunma) v Kokugakuin Kugayama (Nishi Tokyo)
• 3-4 – Tsuruga Kehi (Fukui) v Tomishima (Miyazaki)
• 4-1 – Hanamaki Higashi (Iwate) v Naruto (Tokushima)
• 4-2 – Iiyama (Nagano) v Sendai Ikuei (Miyagi)

There are a lot of “maybe’s” in this bracket. Maybe Sendai Ikuei will have enough offense to offset its not-so-good pitching (as always). Maybe Hanamaki Higashi does deserve to be here, but since Sakaki was unavailable to pitch we’ll never know. Maybe Maebashi Ikuei has found their form from 2013 and 4 consecutive appearances at Natsu Koushien is a plus, but the results have been average at best.

Bracket D

• 4-3 – Narashino (Chiba) v Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa)
• 4-4 – Takamatsu Shougyou (Kagawa) v Tsuruoka Higashi (Yamagata)
• 5-1 – Nihon Bunri (Niigata) v Kanto Dai-ichi (Higashi Tokyo)
• 5-2 – Kumamoto Kougyou (Kumamoto) v Yamanashi Gakuin (Yamanashi)

Narashino probably got a favorable draw here, as most of these teams here probably don’t pose that big of a threat here.

The one exception may be Kanto Dai-ichi who appears to have 2 pitchers who can throw over 140. However, neither pitcher posts above average K rates, and their walk rates are concerning. Over their last 3 games, the dual aces had a K:BB ratio of 16:13 over 25 innings pitcher, and none of the schools save for maybe Koyamadai, and they’re a Tier 3 school. These raise red flags for me as to their actual ability.

Bracket E

• 5-3 – Okayama Gakugeikan (Okayama) v Hiroshima Shougyou (Okayama)
• 6-1 – Chikuyou Gakuen (Fukuoka) v Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi)

Sakushin Gakuin got a dream draw. They drew into the 2nd day, and outside of a possible trap game against Chikuyou Gakuen, just about have a golden ticket to the Best 8.

Bracket F

• 6-2 – Toukaidai Sagami (Kanagawa) v Oumi (Shiga)
• 6-3 – Chuukyou Gakuindai Chuukyou (Gifu) v Hokushou (Minami Hokkaido)

Oumi and their ace Hayashi are out to prove that they would’ve been the better team if not for that 2-run sayonara bunt (that still sounds odd to say now). The only problem is that their first round opponent is the offensive-minded Toukaidai Sagami. Hayashi will have no time to settle into a groove, he’ll have to figure it out right out of the blocks, else his team might be sent home before they can even make their case.

Bracket G

• 6-4 – Hanasaki Tokuhari (Saitama) v Akashi Shougyou (Hyogo)
• 7-1 – Uwajima Higashi (Ehime) v Ube Koujyou (Yamaguchi)

Once again, the bracket falls to one game, and that is Hanasaki Tokuharu v Akashi Shougyou. Hanasaki Tokuharu has pretty much dominated Saitama over the last couple of years, and parlayed that into a title in 2017. Akashi Shougyou burst out into the scene in 2016, and did so once again this past spring. This Natsu Koushien will go a long way into possibly cementing them as a powerhouse in Hyogo if they can match their performance in the spring.

Bracket H

• 7-2 – Kaisei (Nagasaki) v Seikou Gakuin (Fukushima)
• 7-3 – Chiben Gakuen (Nara) v (Winner of)
  • 1-1 – Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Aomori) v Homare (Aichi)

Seikou Gakuin is back in the field. Again. This makes 10 straight graduating classes now in Fukushima that a school not named Seikou Gakuin graduates without ever seeing Natsu Koushien. In fact, since the turn of the century, only 3 years has Seikou Gakuin not represented Fukushima.

Despite all that, they’ve never advanced past the Best 8, though they have gotten there 5 times. This bracket provides perhaps another opportunity to get there as maybe only Chiben Gakuen presents the only major opposition, and maybe not even that. Perhaps Homare can be a dark horse, but that doesn’t seem likely.

Honestly I’m not sure there’s one team that shines above the rest. Most have a flaw somewhere along the line, mostly on the mound, which means that anything can happen. Those that have better pitching will have an advantage over the rest, though how much that advantage will last will depend on if those arms can be either properly managed or outlast the other arms under the insufferable summer heat.